SLOWBALL

EVIDENCE-BASED
INVESTING EDUCATION

A PROJECT BY PABLO AURELIO

LEARN HOW TO
MANAGE YOUR WEALTH

Get to know what is known, build a long term plan, and avoid compounding percentage fees

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Long-term investing is powerful

Wealth grows slowly at first — then accelerates.

A 5% yearly return may not sound extraordinary.

But over time, it compounds.

Over 20 years, it more than doubles your wealth.

Being invested

Year 2005

Real value CHF 1.00

Leaving money in the bank

Year 2005

Purchasing power CHF 1.00

You can do it yourself

It is not about trading or predicting markets.

It does not require special skill.

It is about building a portfolio that fits you — and staying invested over time.

Simple. Evidence-based. Built to last.

What do we know about investing?

Financial markets have been studied for more than a century by academic researchers, institutional investors, and market practitioners.

The most robust insights are public, replicated, and clearly documented.

The few things that matter

Markets are unpredictable in the short term.
Forecasts sometimes work, but consistent prediction is extremely rare.
Diversification is the reliable alternative.
You do not depend on one company, country, sector, or event.
Most professionals do not outperform the market after costs.
Avoid paying for complexity that does not reliably add value.
The right portfolio is personal.
It depends on your goals, risk capacity, and time horizon — and can be understood and planned.

Why not to delegate your wealth blindly?

Because today the tools exist: low-cost ETFs, transparent brokers, and global diversification.

The principles are simple and they work over decades.

What compounds for you can also work against you.

Reduce friction first: costs, taxes, and behavior.

Fees compound against you

Year 0

Potential wealth CHF —

Cost of cash CHF —

Cost of manager CHF —

Cost of robo-Advisor CHF —

In 3 sessions of 1.5 hours, you can learn:

THE BASICS

Markets, risk, expected returns, and behavior.

PORTFOLIO DESIGN

Build a portfolio tailored to your situation, time horizon, and risk tolerance.

IMPLEMENTATION

Execute, automate, rebalance, and manage it over time.

About me

PABLO

AURELIO

I am a senior scientist at ETH Zürich, working in biophysics. I approached investing for the same reason I approach science: to understand how complex systems behave using data, models, and the few ideas that reliably hold up over time.

What surprised me was that, despite long-term investing principles being clear and public, they rarely reach people — obscured by narratives and manufactured complexity that justify intermediaries and recurring fees.

I have spent years teaching, mentoring, and explaining complex ideas clearly. SLOWBALL brings that experience to investing: economics, risk, history, and practical tools — so you can understand your wealth and manage it with confidence.

Where to find me

Zürich, Switzerland

My References

MARKET FOUNDATIONS

[1] Markowitz (1952) — Portfolio Selection.
[2] Gordon (1959) — Dividends, Earnings, and Stock Prices.
[3] Sharpe (1964) — Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM).
[4] Samuelson (1965) — Proof That Properly Anticipated Prices Fluctuate Randomly.
[5] Fama (1970) — Efficient Capital Markets.
[6] Merton (1973) — Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model.

FACTOR INVESTING

[7] Fama & French (1992) — Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns.
[8] Jegadeesh & Titman (1993) — Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers.
[9] Fama & French (1993) — Common Risk Factors in Stocks and Bonds.
[10] Carhart (1997) — Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance.
[11] Fama & French (2015) — Five-Factor Asset Pricing Model.

LIMITS OF TRADING AND ACTIVE MANAGEMENT

[12] Carhart (1997) — Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance.
[13] Barber & Odean (2000) — Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth.
[14] Barber & Odean (2001) — Overconfidence and Excessive Trading.
[15] SPIVA Reports (ongoing) — Active funds vs benchmark performance.

DATA COLLECTION

[16] Cowles Commission (1930s) — Early systematic market datasets.
[17] CRSP (1960–) — Long-run U.S. stock return database (data back to 1926).
[18] Shiller (1981) — Do Stock Prices Move Too Much…?
[19] Dimson, Marsh & Staunton (2023) — Global Investment Returns Yearbook.

RISK, UNCERTAINTY & EXTREME EVENTS

[20] Kahneman & Tversky (1979) — Prospect Theory.
[21] Mandelbrot & Hudson (2004) — The (Mis)Behavior of Markets.
[22] Taleb (2007) — The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.

Plan yourself

Your assumptions

Initial amount (CHF)

Monthly contribution (CHF)

Real return (%/year)

Inflation (%/year)

Management fee (%/year)

Years

After

20 years

Hover the graph to inspect any year and curve.

Total Contributions CHF —

Learn and Do it Yourself CHF —

After management fee CHF —

Cash in the Bank CHF —

You can save CHF —

Risk estimate

Estimated volatility

—

Maximum Drawdown

—

Estimated from the real-return input using a simple portfolio mix assumption: higher expected real return implies more equity-like risk.

Net wealth over time

Total Contributions Learn and Do it Yourself After management fee Cash in the Bank

SIMPLE, FLAT-FEE SESSIONS

SERVICES

SLOWBALL is education and guidance — not a product and not a percentage fee. The goal is to provide you with a clear framework, a toolkit, a long-term plan, and a practical checklist you can execute yourself.

The fundamentals are simple, evidence-based, and well established — by the end, you will know enough to proceed with confidence.

FREE — 15 MINUTES
CONSULTATION

A short call to understand your situation, goals, and constraints — and to confirm whether this service is a good fit for you.

CORE
PROGRAM — 3 × 1.5 HOURS

Three one-on-one sessions completed within 3 to 6 weeks.

1. Foundations
Markets, compounding, inflation, risk, volatility, drawdowns, and time horizon.

2. Portfolio design
ETFs, diversification, bonds, cash, factor exposure, taxes, currency, and contribution plan.

3. Implementation
Broker setup, execution, automation, rebalancing, tracking, and long-term maintenance.

— 1,200 CHF

Why flat fee?

A one-time fee may feel significant. But a 1% annual fee on 100,000 CHF is 1,000 CHF every year — before compounding. Over time, recurring percentage fees become far more expensive than learning once.

FOLLOW-UP
SESSIONS — 1 HOUR

For updates as your life plans change — relocation, buying a home, pension planning, or risk adjustments.

— 300 CHF

EVIDENCE-BASED INVESTING EDUCATION

CONTACT

If this resonates, feel free to reach out.